Development the Urban Spatial Development Scenarios within the Framework of Smart Growth Pattern with Futurism Approach (Case Study: Rasht City)

Document Type : .

Authors

• sadegh kazemkhah ¹
• Mostafa ghadami ²
• Jalal Azimi Amoli ³
• gholamreza janbaz ghobadi ⁴

¹ Ph.D. of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Noor, Iran.

² Associate Professor of Geography, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.

³ Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Noor, Iran.

⁴ Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Noor, Iran.

10.30495/jupm.2022.5514

Abstract

Smart growth is a comprehensive strategy covering various aspects of urban development, and scenario planning attempts to focus on alternative futures using quantitative and qualitative categories.The scale and severity of urban problems around the world show that the current planning process has not been able to effectively achieve its main goal. Therefore, identifying the sustainable urban growth management solutions by adopting future planning methods is vital because it will enable planners to anticipate and reduce conflicts as well as prepare cities for potential shocks. Therefore, the present study seeks to present and compile scenarios of spatial development of Rasht city within the framework of smart urban growth pattern. The aim of the present study is applied and the type of descriptive- analytical method. The required data and information were collected in two ways: library and survey (questionnaire). The process of data analysis using multi- step Delphi technique is based on the method of interaction analysis using MicMac and Sanario Wizard software. The results show that for 13 scenarios with greater compatibility, 7.69% (1 state) of the states have the desired state, 84.61% (11 states) of the states with a static state and 7.69% (1 state) with a pessimistic state. The two scenarios with high scores and the probability of occurrence are more in the future, which shows the optimal scenario number 1 with an impact rate of 359 and the critical situation scenario number 13 with an impact rate of 227. Therefore, in order to realize the smart growth pattern in the Rasht city, among the three hypothetical situations ahead, the future planning strategy should be considered based on the desired scenario number 1.And if the factors of this scenario are emphasized, we can hope for the realization of the goals of smart growth in Rasht, because in the current situation of this scenario, all 14 key factors have an optimistic and hopeful situation.

Keywords

• Keywords: Scenario
• Spatial Development
• Smart Growth
• Futurism

20.1001.1.22285229.1401.13.50.8.9

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