بررسی تأثیر آینده‌نگاری‌راهبردی بر برنامه‌‌ریزی شهری (موردمطالعه: شهر اصفهان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• محبوبه خلفی ¹
• ناصر براتی ²
• روح اله بیات ³

¹ دکتری آینده‌پژوهی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.

² دانشیار گروه مهندسی شهرسازی دانشکده شهرسازی دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.

³ دانشیار گروه آینده‌پژوهی دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.

10.30495/jupm.2021.26739.3716

چکیده

شهری و تنوع ذینفعان شده که به عدم‌قطعیت‌های آن افزوده است. شهر خلاق صنایع‌دستی یونسکو (اصفهان) نیاز به نگاهی آینده‌نگرانه دارد تا بتواند روندی رو به رشد را رقم بزند اما عدم قطعیت‌ها منجر به مبهم شدن آینده بلندمدت آن شده است. می‌توان در برنامه‌های راهبردی شهر اصفهان مشاهده کرد که باوجود سابقه 24 ساله در برنامه‌ریزی، همچنان با مشکلات بسیاری ازجمله: خشک‌سالی، کاهش رونق اقتصادی به‌واسطه بیماری کرونا، ترافیک، آلودگی دست و پنجه نرم می‌کند. هدف این پژوهش تعیین مؤلفه‌های آینده‌نگاری راهبردی به‌عنوان رویکردی ظرفیت ساز برای شهر اصفهان به‌منظور تقویت برنامه راهبردی است. در مدل عمومی وروس 6 گام: ورودی، تحلیل، تفسیر، چشم‌انداز سازی، خروجی و راهبرد برای این رویکرد تعریف‌شده است. در این پژوهش که درسال 1399 انجام شده است، با استفاده از روش مطالعه کتابخانه‌ای و به روش فراترکیب، مؤلفه‌ها در هریک از گام‌های مدل عمومی استخراج شد. پس‌ازآن با استفاده از نظر 26 خبره و با استفاده از ضریب لاوشه روایی مدل سنجش شد و درنهایت با استفاده ازنظر 86 کارشناس در اصفهان و به کمک روش تحلیل عاملی تأییدی که به کمک نرم‌افزار PLS  مؤلفه‌های نهایی به دست آمد. در انتها با استفاده از ماتریس MICMAC نقش هریک از این مؤلفه‌ها ارزیابی شد. مدل تحلیل عاملی تأییدی نهایی نشان داد که مؤلفه‌های آینده‌نگاری راهبردی می‌تواند در کارآمد کردن برنامه‌های شهر اصفهان بسیار اثرگذار باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• آینده‌نگاری راهبردی
• برنامه‌ریزی شهری
• ضریب لاوشه
• ماتریس میک مک

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of Strategic Foresight on Urban Planning (Case Study: Isfahan)

نویسندگان [English]

• Mahboobeh khalafi ¹
• Nasser Barati ²
• Roholah bayat ³

¹ : PhD in Futures Studies, Department of Futures Studied, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin.

² Associate Professor, Department of Urban Engineering, Faculty of Urban Planning, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

³ Associate Professor, Department of Futures Studied, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin.

چکیده [English]

Isfahan in terms of geography, industry, history has a strategic position in the world. The city has experienced many power, ethnic and demographic changes throughout history, and this has led to the complexity of urban issues and the diversity of stakeholders, which has added to its uncertainties. The creative city of UNESCO handicrafts (Isfahan) needs a forward-looking look to be able to figure out a growing trend, but the uncertainties have led to the ambiguity of its long-term future. It can be seen in the strategic plans of Isfahan that despite 24 years of experience in planning, it still suffers from many problems such as: drought, reduced economic prosperity due to Covid-19, traffic, pollution and so on. The purpose of this study is to determine the components of strategic foresight as a capacity-building approach for the city of Isfahan in order to strengthen the strategic plan. This approach, by examining strategic issues, while preparing the capacities, can prepare the city to enter the field of competition. In the general model, 6 steps: input, analysis, interpretation, visioning, output, and strategy are defined for this approach. In this study, components in each step of the general model were extracted using the library study method and the meta-synthetzing method. After that, the validity of the model was assessed using the opinions of 26 experts and using the Lasse coefficient, and finally, using the opinions of 86 experts in Isfahan, and using the confirmatory factor analysis method, the final components were obtained with the help of PLS software. Finally, the role of each of these components was evaluated using the MICMAC matrix. Identifying key issues, uncertainties and drivers, strategic directions and scenario logic are key components in determining the pillars of the plan. The final confirmatory factor analysis model showed that the components of strategic foresight can be very effective in making Isfahan city plans efficient.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Strategic Foresight
• Urban Planning
• Lasse Coefficient
• MicMac Matrix

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