Investigating the Impact of Strategic Foresight on Urban Planning (Case Study: Isfahan)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Mahboobeh khalafi ¹
• Nasser Barati ²
• Roholah bayat ³

¹ : PhD in Futures Studies, Department of Futures Studied, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin.

² Associate Professor, Department of Urban Engineering, Faculty of Urban Planning, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

³ Associate Professor, Department of Futures Studied, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin.

10.30495/jupm.2021.26739.3716

Abstract

Isfahan in terms of geography, industry, history has a strategic position in the world. The city has experienced many power, ethnic and demographic changes throughout history, and this has led to the complexity of urban issues and the diversity of stakeholders, which has added to its uncertainties. The creative city of UNESCO handicrafts (Isfahan) needs a forward-looking look to be able to figure out a growing trend, but the uncertainties have led to the ambiguity of its long-term future. It can be seen in the strategic plans of Isfahan that despite 24 years of experience in planning, it still suffers from many problems such as: drought, reduced economic prosperity due to Covid-19, traffic, pollution and so on. The purpose of this study is to determine the components of strategic foresight as a capacity-building approach for the city of Isfahan in order to strengthen the strategic plan. This approach, by examining strategic issues, while preparing the capacities, can prepare the city to enter the field of competition. In the general model, 6 steps: input, analysis, interpretation, visioning, output, and strategy are defined for this approach. In this study, components in each step of the general model were extracted using the library study method and the meta-synthetzing method. After that, the validity of the model was assessed using the opinions of 26 experts and using the Lasse coefficient, and finally, using the opinions of 86 experts in Isfahan, and using the confirmatory factor analysis method, the final components were obtained with the help of PLS software. Finally, the role of each of these components was evaluated using the MICMAC matrix. Identifying key issues, uncertainties and drivers, strategic directions and scenario logic are key components in determining the pillars of the plan. The final confirmatory factor analysis model showed that the components of strategic foresight can be very effective in making Isfahan city plans efficient.

Keywords

• Strategic Foresight
• Urban Planning
• Lasse Coefficient
• MicMac Matrix

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