Compilation of physical resilience scenarios with passive defense approach Case study: District 4 of Tehran metropolis

Document Type : .

Authors

• Behjat Tadayyon ¹
• Majid Shams ²
• Mohammad Ali Khaliji ³

¹ PhD student,, Research and Sciences Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran . Iran

² Professor of Department of Geography, Malayer Branch, Islamic Aazd University of Malayer , Iran [e-mail]

³ Assistant Professor of Urban Planning Department, Ahvaz Branch, Islamic Azad University , Ahvaz , Iran

10.30495/jupm.2024.31414.4295

Abstract

Today, overcoming environmental and man-made hazards has become a key challenge for urban societies, especially in developing countries. Therefore, the resilience of societies with passive defense approach is used to improve the ability to prepare to resist emergency situations, plan to endure it, rebuild and rehabilitate after it and successfully adapt to its consequences in the range and biological complexes. In this regard, this article has tried to identify the physical resilience scenarios of the 4th district of Tehran metropolis with a passive defense approach for the horizon of 2031. Theoretical data was prepared by document method and experimental data by survey method based on Delphi technique. The statistical population is 20 urban experts based on snowball sampling. In order to analyze the information obtained from the method of structural analysis and scenario writing, it has been processed in MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. The findings indicate that the general pattern of dispersion of the studied stimuli, in terms of mutual effects analysis, indicates the situation of an unstable environmental system and a cluster concentration in the dual stimulus. Other findings of this article from the examination of plausible scenarios show the relative predominance of static situations (continuation of the existing trend) 77 situations (%31) and on the verge of crisis 53 situations (%21) in the planning of physical resilience of the 4th district of Tehran metropolis with a passive defense approach What is certain is that the physical resilience of the 4th region of Tehran metropolis with the approach of passive defense in terms of reasonable urban development and in accordance with the conditions of natural geography and building and population density is facing almost fundamental challenges.

Keywords

• scenario
• physical resilience
• passive defense
• district 4
• Tehran metropolis

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