تدوین سناریوهای توسعۀ فضایی شهری در چارچوب الگوی رشد هوشمند با رویکرد آینده پژوهی (مطالعۀ موردی: شهر رشت)

نوع مقاله : مقاله برگرفته از پایان نامه

نویسندگان

1 دکتری تخصصی گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نور، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.

3 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نور، ایران.

4 استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نور، ایران

چکیده

رشد هوشمند یک استراتژی جامع است که ‏جنبه های مختلف توسعه شهری را ‏پوشش می دهد و برنامه ریزی سناریو با بهره گیری از مقوله های کمی و کیفی می کوشد آینده های بدیل را در کانون توجه قرار دهد.مقیاس و شدت مشکلات شهری حاکم بر سرتاسر جهان نشان می‌دهد که روند برنامه‌ریزی موجود نتوانسته به‌طور مؤثر به هدف اصلی خود عمل کند. به همین دلیل شناسایی راه‌حل‌های پایدار مدیریت رشد شهری با اتخاذ روش‌های برنامه‌ریزی آینده، از اهمیت حیاتی برخوردار است، چرا که برنامه‌ریزان را قادر به پیش‌بینی و کاهش تضادها و همچنین آماده‌سازی شهرها برای شوک‌های احتمالی خواهد نمود. لذا پژوهش حاضر به دنبال ارائه و تدوین سناریوهای توسعه فضایی شهر رشت در چارچوب الگوی رشد هوشمند شهری است. هدف پژوهش حاضر کاربردی و نوع روش توصیفی تحلیلی است. داده‌ها و اطلاعات موردنیاز به دو روش کتابخانه‌ای و پیمایشی (پرسشنامه) جمع‌آوری‌شده است. فرایند تجزیه وتحلیل داده‌ها با استفاده از تکنیک دلفی چند مرحله‌ای، مبتنی بر روش تحلیل تأثیر متقابل با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای میک مک و سناریو ویزارد است. نتایج وضعیت برای 13 سناریوی با سازگاری بیشتر حاکی است، 69/7 درصد (1 حالت) از وضعیت‌ها داری حالت مطلوب، 61/84 درصد (11 حالت) از حالت‌ها دارای وضعیت ایستا و 69/7 درصد (1 حالت) دارای وضعیت بدبینانه می‌باشند. 2 سناریو با امتیاز بالا و احتمال وقوع بیشتر در شرایط آینده هستند که سناریوی مطلوب شماره 1 با میزان تأثیرگذاری 359 و سناریوی وضعیت بحرانی شماره 13 با میزان تاثیر گذاری 227 را نشان می‌دهند. بنابراین برای تحقق الگوی رشد هوشمند در شهر رشت، از میان سه وضعیت فرضی پیش‌رو می‌بایست راهبرد برنامه‌ریزی آینده براساس سناریوی مطلوب شماره 1 مدنظر قراربگیرد. و در صورت تاکید بر عوامل سناریوی مزبور می‌توان به تحقق اهداف رشد هوشمندانه در شهر رشت امیدوار بود، چرا که در وضیت‌های حاکم بر این سناریو تمامی 14 عامل کلیدی از وضعیتی خوش‌بینانه و امیدوارکننده برخوردار هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Development the Urban Spatial Development Scenarios within the Framework of Smart Growth Pattern with Futurism Approach (Case Study: Rasht City)

نویسندگان [English]

  • sadegh kazemkhah 1
  • Mostafa ghadami 2
  • Jalal Azimi Amoli 3
  • gholamreza janbaz ghobadi 4
1 Ph.D. of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Noor, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Geography, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
3 Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Noor, Iran.
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Noor, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Smart growth is a comprehensive strategy covering various aspects of urban development, and scenario planning attempts to focus on alternative futures using quantitative and qualitative categories.The scale and severity of urban problems around the world show that the current planning process has not been able to effectively achieve its main goal. Therefore, identifying the sustainable urban growth management solutions by adopting future planning methods is vital because it will enable planners to anticipate and reduce conflicts as well as prepare cities for potential shocks. Therefore, the present study seeks to present and compile scenarios of spatial development of Rasht city within the framework of smart urban growth pattern. The aim of the present study is applied and the type of descriptive- analytical method. The required data and information were collected in two ways: library and survey (questionnaire). The process of data analysis using multi- step Delphi technique is based on the method of interaction analysis using MicMac and Sanario Wizard software. The results show that for 13 scenarios with greater compatibility, 7.69% (1 state) of the states have the desired state, 84.61% (11 states) of the states with a static state and 7.69% (1 state) with a pessimistic state. The two scenarios with high scores and the probability of occurrence are more in the future, which shows the optimal scenario number 1 with an impact rate of 359 and the critical situation scenario number 13 with an impact rate of 227. Therefore, in order to realize the smart growth pattern in the Rasht city, among the three hypothetical situations ahead, the future planning strategy should be considered based on the desired scenario number 1.And if the factors of this scenario are emphasized, we can hope for the realization of the goals of smart growth in Rasht, because in the current situation of this scenario, all 14 key factors have an optimistic and hopeful situation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Keywords: Scenario
  • Spatial Development
  • Smart Growth
  • Futurism

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 16 تیر 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 22 اسفند 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 25 اسفند 1399

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